Futurist & University Professor, Dr. MEHDI MOTAHARNIA, in the light of studying Blue Ocean Strategy – W Chan Kim & Renee Mauborgne – and Swan Lake – Nicholas Taleb – in the Business World; has presented a novel theory entitled: Blue Sphere & Nacreous Swans Lake Strategy. The following note briefs readers on this theory.
Professor Dr. MEHDI MOTAHARNIA: Future is fraught with our estimation errors. Strategic surprises are on the lurk in an intent to push us toward failure. One cannot wholeheartedly explore the future in the wake of past and present defects and irregularities. The entire aspects of our existence are fraught with uncertainties in the wake of such impurities and defects.
Foresight, or as I recall it “Histriography” thrives to decode the mysteries of future upon adaption of an applied, scientific, democractic, dynamic, and guriella-mannered approach.
One of the central fields of this scientific discipline is “Market”. Businesses and their pertaining futures are discussed in this domain. In this literary jargon, I am inclined to consider jobs and trade as the central wordsmiths of this text, instead of the term “Businesses”, given that trade is attainted upon; acquisition of jobs; and activities mainitain an overriding priority to incomes and revenues.
With due regard to two theories presented in two books, under two headings of “Blue Ocean Strategy” & “Black Swan” and with due consideration of a book penned by Nicholas Taleb, titled: “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”, released in 2007, I aim to study and analyze a theory which I am determined to enactivate in Businesses in the 2020s.
Future Drivers of Global Change
April Curie, Ivala Zarova & Ruhit Talvar have divided the effective and fateful propellent future forces into four major categories and a set of meaningful sub-groups of propellents, namely: “Fresh Paradigms”, “Embarkment upon the Age of Abundance”, “Innovation Aimed at Fulfillment of Zero Carbon Footprint”, “Circular Economies”, Popular or Civility Ecology”, “Market-Based Environmental Tools” & “Local Projects for Sustainable Management of Sources”.
In accordance with this theory, a “Surging Rise of Global of Demand for Energy” and “Gradual Materialization of Hydrolic Failure Technology” have been foreseen in the domain of energy, and the practical scale of alternative fuels have been analyzed. Shortage of sources, ascension of all domains, food security, environmental hazards and climate change will leave devastating impacts on businesses.
This groupings of various driving forces of this realm can be broadened, covering a wide variety of additional propellents. In the meantime, under the impact of these driving forces, within the framework of diverse approaches and extrapolation of the existing trends; the future development of market’s driving forces are realized in the domain of future studies, as an integral part of foresightedness.
Meanwhile, to attain graphic and emotional foresight, one should move from forecasts toward smart presuppositions, Unfolding horizons should be put into use as major stimulants for realization of idealistic graphics. Upon revision of these diverse classifications, and upon contention on the two abovementioned theories, I am well intent on presenting Blue Sphere & Nacreous Swans’ Lake Strategy. The followings brief you on the studies which have been carried out in this realm.
1- Blue Ocean Strategy – W Chan Kim & Renee Mauborgne
A book entitled: “Blue Ocean Strategy”, a product of a 20-year endeavor by W Chan Kim & Renee Mauborgne was published in the year 2005, which turned out to be a Blockbuster, selling almost a million copies in less than a year, while concurrently being translated into 41 languages. A product ofr two decades of research over more than 150 global strategic moves within thirty different industrial fields, in the past century, Blue Ocean Strategy concurrently puts two different strategies of “Differentiation” and “Alleviation of Expenses” into practice, while simultaneously granting a series of managerial methodologies and instruments for the sake of creation of a novel and unrivaled freshly-emerged open market for the pertaining organiztaions and establishments.
Blue Ocean Strategy can be defined as development of demand markets, which were initially unitended and uneeded. In such markets, you will, in fact, be the pioneer, forerunner and tradeblazer, given that you are still unrivaled! The authors of the abovementioned blockbuster have resembled ordinary, everyday, highly-competitive markets to a “Red Ocean”, portraying a highly challenging bloody scene. In the meantime, Blue Ocean is an innovative strategy which creates its own unrivaled, pleasing markets.
In this manner, Blue Ocean Strategy Trade Book puts Business World Rivalry into the spotlight. the Book’s authors pinpoint their lack of interest in rivalry with other similar-topiced released books and articles. in the opinion of W Chan Kim & Renee Mauborgne; in a bid to succeed in the business world, you are better off distancing yourself from rivalry.
in the said book a highly-competitive businesse world is analogized to a bloody oceaned battlefield, within which there are packed, highly burgeoning markets, making outmost efforts to promote and elevate their status, trying their best to enlargen their share of the demand market. However, the Blue Ocean is the realm of latent, tranquil and peaceful market, within which the one and only forerunner and victor is Creativity.
2- Nicholas Taleb’s “Black Swan”
Nowadays, almost everyone seem to have heard of Nicholas Taleb: A previous transactor in the field of “Financial Derivative Tools”, who catapulted into fame upon penning the Books: “Fooled by Randomness” & 2007-bestseller “Black Swan”.
According to Nicholas Taleb, Black Swan was authored concurrent with engagement in a Plan, known as “Incerto”, which intends to display the significance of randomness and possibilities throughout life, and, most importantly, the trade world. Taleb’s smashing bestsellers are significant accomplishments.
In his blockbuster, “Black Swan”, Taleb aims to point out to his readers that there is no need for us to become entangled in random incident, and to make up reasonings and semi-logics for doing soo random incidents are solely random events, and intense focus on Black Swans leads to mostly faulty, intricate analyses. The global foresight which Taleb intends to familiarize us with aims to remind us of not intending to be a know-all, given that it is an impossible task. this bestseller familiarizes us with our ignorances, making hard efforts to persuade us to get along with them.
the book’s theme revolves on reminding us that excessive attention to our randomness drives us into turning a blind eye toward the major wrongdoings which are the consequence of such focusing. Meanwhile, the pertaining author delineates this idea with such delicacy and intricacy that even readers, unfamiliar with the Science of Possibilities get the writer’s intention immediately. in its 1st Chapter, and early 2nd Chapter, Taleb’s Black Swan mentions psychological topics of importance in the field of Risk Management, while in the remains of 2nd Chapter and the upcoming Third Chapter, there are wrtinings revolving round science and trade, ultimately concluding that one can still enjoy life despite the ever-existing uncertainties, solely, upon adapting a fresh standpoint and outlook.
Taleb introduces us with his higihly-conducive insight in the said bestseller, compelling us toward becoming distrustful of the world. For instance, in relation to Narrative Fallacy, he notes: How can mankind enagage in self-deception by his own fake tales and narratives? According to aforementioned, we always aim to foresee the future, however, whenever historical data fails to interpret and justify events and are silenced, Black Swan occurs. For instance, Taleb mentions Thanskgiving Festivity’s turkey, which lovely human beings eat, while painting an upbeat picture for themselves, enjoying a well-off lifestyle, until the unforeseen and unexpected incident emerges in the last Wednesday before Thanksgiving Night; leaving you dumfounded: Black Swan.
A wider range of faulty decisions occur under the heading of “Lucid Fallacy”, in which individuals are intent on gambling with their lives. However, in contrary to Casino-style games, the possible developments and events of the real world remain opaque and unclear, with the origin of events being less transparent than Casino games. Taleb also creates two fresh phenomena at this point: One is the Mainstream Current, within which every member is incapable of impacting and influencing other members, however, in “Karanestan” (Non-Mainstream World), as the consequence of inequality, every single member is capable of independently outbalancing other members. Taleb believes that Black Swans are nurtured and emerged in Non-Mainstream Scenes.
in the Mainstream World, we can study and analyze statistical figures and predict the future, while developing a pattern and model for every single event. However, in the Non-Mainstream Scene, our data develop and enhancer sluggishly, with the outside viewer struggling to discover an all-encompassing bond among the entire data. In the Non-Mainstream World, the winner takes all and the loser is an all-time loser, and the risk of winning in the Non-Mainstream World is much higher in comparison to Mainstream World.
A Summary of these two viewpoints can be briefed as follows:
In the Blue Ocean Strategy, one is faced with a systematic, repetitive process. The said strategy provides us with tools (Blue Ocean Creation Strategies), Frameworks (Needed mindset for movement toward Blue Ocean) and Principles (Development & mobilization of strategies aimed for fulfilling Blue Ocean Strategy), assisting us in perceiving unique market-related opportunities, enabling us to operate in the traditional and untraditional sections of market. Blue Ocean Strategy does not aim to boost rivalry in the market scene or bolster the demand market; and is in fact a strategy which guides us towards a rival-less market, which we should create, instead of reinforcement of the demand market. In other words, the Phenomenon of Darvinism of the battle for survival in the Blue Oceans is not the topic of discussion. Instead, we should seek opportunities, which swiftly guide us toward profiteering.
In the Black Swan Strategy, we face the fragility of our know-how. Black Swan proves the intense limitations we encounter in learing from out experiences and observations. A single observation suffices to develop a general outcome, disqualifying and unvalidating the outcome of thousands of years of observations of millions of Black Swans. Only upon experiencing a single Black Swan, our entire practical views and theoretical concepts may immediately collapse and fall into ruins. Black Swans maintain three outstanding features: They are 1-Unexpected, 2- Highly Consequential, 3- Are foreseeable upon foresight.
Blue Sphere & Nacreous Swans’ Lake Strategy
We never encounter Nacreous Swans. They are, in fact, a product of our management in their creation via blending White & Black Swans in a smart and intelligent manner. In this intelligent development, concurrent with facing off inner-challengs and emerging developments in our surrounding environment, we shift toward the Blue Sphere, instead of remaining helplessly and haplessly in the Bloody-Red Ocean, or getting recalled toward the Blue Ocean; thereby becoming enabled to create surprises, insteaded of facing unexpected surprises, off guarded. Needless to say, the challenge and unresolved dilemma we encounter is how to discover Black Swans, in advance to their emergence, and how to blend them with White Swans? Naturally, to achieve this perception and to make the necessary move, one has to rely on futuristic predictions and a knowledge of applied history, which depends on depiction of future, sense of imagination and smart predictions. this systematic theory is pillared on three paradigms of Critical Realism, Critical Thinking, and Critical Post-Realism.
Nacreous Swan maintains the same three features of Black Swans. On this basis, one can note that our Blue Sphere also maintains its own particular features, which are the same as three features of Black Swans, in short.
in the near future, a book, revolving extensively on this theory will be published.
Mehdi Motaharnia, University Lecturer & Futurist
ترجمه شده توسط جناب آقای محمد رفیعی گروه ترجمه اندیشکده آینده اندیشی سیمرغ